Could SCOTUS vacancy sink markets and boost Bitcoin?
Last Updated on 21 September 2020 by CryptoTips.eu
Goodbye Tiny Dancer by Elton John was trending over the weekend as it was the song that played just as US President Donald Trump was informed that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg had passed at the age of 87.
Trump expressed his condolences stating:
She led an amazing life…She was an amazing woman, whether you agreed or not…I am sad to hear that.
Just as Elton sang those famous words in the background: Blue Jean baby, LA lady, seamstress for the band.
It was another typical incredible 2020 moment and no writer could have predicted a more fitting scene indeed.
Volatility to climb
As the dust settled during the weekend, financial analysts started to wonder what the vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States (or SCOTUS as it is known) could mean for the presidential election in November.
According to articles in both Barronās (conservative market predictor) and ZerohedgeĀ (rightwing commentary), the volatility of markets would only increase on this latest news.
Nuclear Scenario For Markets Emerges In 'Jaw-Dropping' SCOTUS/Election Plot-Twist https://t.co/4xZGiPcZvc
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 19, 2020
Democratic candidate Joe Biden seems unable to take a commanding lead over President Donald Trump even though the latter has overseen the demise of some 200k Americans during the Covid-19 pandemic so far. Furthermore, the Republicans are being offered a chance to fill the Supreme Court with a conservative majority after the passing ofĀ the Notorious RBG.
Chances for Bitcoin?
Barronās went, as the always do, looking for historical patterns and found that when uncertainty over a presidential election looms, stock markets tend to sell off, and other more riskier investments do well.
The investor informer stated:Ā
Stocks typically sells off an average 2% from September to November in presidential election years, according to UBS, as investors try to predict whether major changes are coming in fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policy.
However, there could be a major chance for Bitcoin as the most famous crypto is seen as a “safe haven” as of late, and both Gold and other cryptocurrencies (Ethereum and stablecoin Tether come to mind) are seen as reasonable best against uncertainty in economic markets.
US Elections and Bitcoin
Weāve had a quick look for you to see what the Bitcoin price did back in previous election cycles.
The historical price chart from 1 September 2016 until 26 December 2016 indeed shows that the uncertainty of the Republican Donald Trump versus Democrat Hillary Clinton election also had markets highly volatile whilst Bitcoin ā¦ rose from $571 to $902.
Back in 2012, as Democratic President Barack Obama faced off with Republican challenger Mitt Romney, Bitcoin was only at $9,97 on 1 September and rose to $13,51 by the end of the year.
If history proves any indication, then it is that Bitcoin tends to rise during the US presidential election season, and tends to rise quite well.
Good omen or bad omen? Time will tell.