Bitcoin’s 2023 Rally Is A Copy Of The 2019 One, Which Means…
Bitcoin may not be that old just yet, but there are already historical charts that are comparable to current trends that analysts hope to predict future price increases or decreases.
A well-known and popular economical analyst believes that the Bitcoin rally of January 2023 (in the past month Bitcoin went from a low of $16,400 to a high of $23,700) will be just like that of 2019, when Bitcoin climbed from $4,000 to $13,000. Should he be right, the price would increase another 250% in the coming weeks and months.
Geo Chen writes a popular blog called Fidenza Macro in which he explains parallels between current and past situations in the global economy.
While highlighting that the mid-November 2022 front page of The Economist marked the bottom of Bitcoin (something Cryptotips also pointed out), he is therefore able to compare the current January 2023 rally to the Spring 2019 rally.
Fidenza Macro: Adding long ETH/USD to the portfolio https://t.co/yHCXqwDV0k— Fidenza Macro (@fidenzamacro) January 20, 2023
Chen points out the following tendencies that were identical in 2022 and 2018:
- Bitcoin fell a good 84% in 2018 and a good 65% in 2022 as global interest rates were raised in both years, which was bad for stocks and crypto.
- Bitcoin remained quite stable in the four months before the winter and spring 2019 rally began. This was also the case for the last months of 2022 and the first two weeks of 2023.
- Finally, the 2019 rally came at a time when global growth slowed and the Federal Reserve decided to stop raising rates. The latter in particular could be true in 2023.
Chen prefers an investment in Ethereum over Bitcoin at the moment, as he feels the Vitalik Buterin coin has more upside.
A very interesting analysis. We’ll know in a few weeks if he’s right.