Van de Poppe expects Bitcoin relief rally in March as Hyperliquid attracts commodity traders

Bitcoin is trading at $66,409, up 4.57% over the past 24 hours, but the broader weekly loss of 2.32% shows that uncertainty has not disappeared. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe points to the 21 day moving average as a crucial level for a potential relief rally.

Meanwhile, crypto platform Hyperliquid is emerging as an unexpected weekend haven for commodity traders looking to capitalize on the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran.

Hyperliquid becomes a weekend haven for commodity traders

With traditional markets closed over the weekend, traders look for alternative ways to respond to geopolitical tensions. Hyperliquid, a decentralized trading platform operating 24 hours a day and 7 days a week, benefits from this shift. Traders use the platform to trade perpetual futures on oil and gold while regular exchanges remain closed.

The rally in commodity derivatives on Hyperliquid stems from the need to hedge against potential disruptions in energy supply caused by the conflict in the Middle East. It is a notable development that shows how crypto infrastructure is taking on a broader role beyond trading digital assets alone. For traders unwilling to wait until Monday, the platform offers a way to react instantly to breaking news.

Bitcoin struggles with the 21 day average

The daily chart on TradingView outlines the technical picture. Bitcoin is trading around $66,357 and remains well below the 21 day moving average, which acts as resistance above the current price. Van de Poppe argues that this level must be reclaimed to enable a relief rally. Without a breakout, a sharp decline toward lower support levels around $60,749 and $59,600 becomes increasingly likely.

Bitcoin’s initial reaction to the geopolitical developments was positive, but the price has since started to correct. Uncertainty about how US markets will open on Monday adds to the hesitation. In addition, an open CME gap may influence price action. The 24 hour trading volume of $47.3 billion shows heavy activity, yet direction remains unclear as long as geopolitical tensions persist.

Will the relief rally arrive in March or April?

Van de Poppe expects a relief rally to emerge sometime in March or April, but ties this outlook to two conditions. First, Bitcoin must establish a higher low compared to recent lows. Second, the 21 day moving average needs to be broken to shift the technical structure. The opening of US markets on Monday therefore becomes a key reference point.

Initial response of the markets was positive on $BTC.

Now, markets are correcting back down, as there's uncertainty on how US markets will open tomorrow (and there's still an outstanding gap of the CME).

On the other hand, the 21-Day MA needs to break in order to have a relief… pic.twitter.com/l9A0l6Fb3K

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 1, 2026

The daily chart shows that since peaking above $100,000, Bitcoin has been forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The heavy volume accompanying the sharp drop in early February points to capitulation. The key question now is whether the current zone around $66,000 provides enough support to form a higher low, or whether geopolitical uncertainty pushes the price toward $60,000 or lower. For now, markets await the reaction of traditional exchanges to the Iran conflict and whether Bitcoin can reclaim the 21 day moving average.