PlanB Sees “Great Buying Opportunity”, Scott Minerd Thinks “Probably A Crash”

Two opposing views on the future of Bitcoin, which has been ranging between $30,000 and $35,000 for several weeks now and is thus due either a move up or down when this range ends, are in the news nowadays. On the one hand we have a bullish outcome, on the other a bearish one. Who should we believe?

PlanB’s Stock To Flow

The Stock To Flow model of anonymous Dutch technical analyst PlanB (who has become quite critical of the Dutch government’s COVID response, see hereunder) is by now arguably one of the most common predictors of the Bitcoin price.

Dutch House of Representatives voted for a law (for 103, against 26) that
- gives Covid (+future variants) same status as Ebola
- gives Government unlimited powers: curfew, lockdown, mask mandate, vaccine mandate etc
- takes away ALL constitutional protection
How did this happen? pic.twitter.com/IJT41NxAQo

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) July 6, 2021

For believers of this model, it provides an easy predictor of whether Bitcoin is cheap or expensive at this moment in time.

Negative Stock-To-Flow deflection is the highest it's ever been in the whole #Bitcoin history.

This is a great buying opportunity, if you're a believer in this model. pic.twitter.com/N3CFLLJdH9

— Lex Moskovski (@mskvsk) July 10, 2021

Lex Moskovski, the Chief Investment Officer of the fund which bears his name, claims therefore that Bitcoin is cheap at this moment. He stated:

Negative Stock-To-Flow deflection is the highest it’s ever been in the whole Bitcoin history. This is a great buying opportunity, if you’re a believer in this model.

Bitcoin crash incoming?

Scott Minerd, the technical analyst and chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners who correctly predicted Bitcoin’s recent fall as well as the inflation frenzy we see worldwide, has updated his view for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies again, this time going even more bearish than before.

Speaking to CNBC, Minerd said:

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies had plainly just gone parabolic, and parabolic markets are impossible to sustain. So a normal correction, or sell-off, would be 40-50%.

However, for the months to come, and with a possible stock market pullback in mind should the FED start to increase rates, Minerd believes Bitcoin could fall further. He stated:

But when we look at the history of crypto, and we look at where we are, I mean, I really do believe this is probably a crash. And, you know, a crash would mean we would be down 70% to 80%, which, let’s just say, that’s between $10,000 and $15,000.