Oil rises 9% and stocks fall, but Bitcoin doesn’t move during geopolitical crisis

Financial markets are reacting sharply to the escalation in the Middle East. UK gas surges 23.5%, Brent crude climbs 9%, gold adds 2.5% and silver rises 2.1%. Equity markets are broadly lower, with the Dow down 1%, the Nasdaq off 0.9% and the S&P 500 slipping 0.4%.

The biggest surprise, however, is Bitcoin: the price barely moves. On a day when commodities spike and stocks decline, the largest cryptocurrency shows a move of just 0.01%.

Commodities surge while stocks slide

The market reaction follows a classic geopolitical playbook: investors rotate out of risk assets and into commodities and precious metals. Oil responds most aggressively, with Brent crude up 9% and WTI crude gaining 8.8%. Fears of energy supply disruptions push gasoline 4.7% higher and UK gas up an extraordinary 23.5%. Gold and silver benefit from their traditional safe haven status.

Equity markets move in the opposite direction. The Dow Jones falls 1%, the Nasdaq 100 drops 0.9% and the S&P 500 declines 0.4%. This is typical behavior when investors prepare for uncertainty rather than growth. Capital shifts from equities to hard assets, from risk toward protection.

Bitcoin refuses to drop

The most striking signal of the day is the silence in Bitcoin. A 0.01% decline is effectively flat. During previous geopolitical shocks, Bitcoin often behaved like a risk asset and fell alongside equities. That is not happening now.

The markets are open, and yes, there's the shock reaction.

Brent Oil: +9%
Gold: +2.5%

The surprise?#Bitcoin: -0.01%

No downwards move on Bitcoin. Zero. pic.twitter.com/fOIgoBaXth

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 2, 2026

There are several possible explanations. The first is that Bitcoin has already corrected significantly in recent weeks, leaving few sellers remaining. The market may have already capitulated, with those who wanted to exit having done so.

The second explanation is more structural: Bitcoin may be starting to decouple from traditional risk sentiment and behave more like a neutral asset that does not automatically track equity market panic.

A third possibility is that crypto traders assess the conflict differently than traditional investors and rely on historical data showing that military escalations rarely have long term negative effects on markets.

What investors are watching now

The coming days will be crucial for market direction. As long as geopolitical uncertainty persists, commodities are likely to remain the primary beneficiaries. The key question for oil is whether supply from the Gulf region becomes materially disrupted. The closure of airports in Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi suggests real logistical impact.

For Bitcoin, stability during this crisis could mark a turning point in perception. If the price holds steady in the days ahead while equities remain under pressure, it would strengthen the narrative that Bitcoin is evolving into an asset capable of absorbing geopolitical shocks.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe expects commodities to reach a peak soon, followed by a rotation back into equities and crypto. If that scenario plays out, Bitcoin could be among the first risk assets to benefit once uncertainty begins to fade.