Insider trading? Crypto investor makes half a million dollars betting on Maduro’s removal

In the US, you can bet on just about anything via the Polymarket website. You can take a stake on any event anywhere in the world with digital coins. One seasoned crypto investor created an account on Polymarket in December 2025 and bet $32,000 worth of crypto on various events he thought would happen in Venezuela. Miraculously for him, they all paid off only a few weeks later.

Insider trading

This isn’t the first time rumors of “insider trading” have circulated within the Trump camp. Last October, about 30 minutes before Trump announced his intention to impose a 100% tariff on China, several accounts were opened on crypto trading platforms, and millions of Bitcoin shorts were placed. Following Trump’s announcement, the price of Bitcoin suddenly dropped by 17%, and one investor made approximately $88 million. The accounts were quickly closed 24 hours later, and because of the anonymity of crypto, no one knows who it was until this day.

Maduro

This time, the stakes were much smaller at $32,000 in crypto, but once again, all the predictions were highly accurate and detailed. Data from Polymarket shows that traders estimated the probability of Maduro’s departure on Friday afternoon, January 2nd, at only 6.5%.

However, shortly before midnight, that probability had risen to 11% and increased further in the early hours of January 3rd. This indicates a sudden shift in sentiment just before Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was already in US custody.

The investor earned approximately half a million dollars from his bet.

It remains unclear who placed the wager. The anonymous account had a blockchain identification code consisting of letters and numbers.