Has the ‘tactical Bitcoin bottom’ been reached?
Last Updated on 24 November 2025 by CryptoTips.eu
When in doubt, zoom out, that is the old stock market adage, and so, as always, we should take a look at the Wall Street Cheat Sheet. It teaches us that in the event of a sharp decline, a “tactical bottom” can always be found ‘also known as a “bear trap.” This means that a short-term rise can be expected, after which the downward movement will normally continue at a much slower pace than before. Whether that will be the case this time remains to be seen, but historically, that’s what we should expect.
Cheat Sheet
The famous Wall Street Cheat Sheet chart explains the psychology of a bull run for virtually every investment. From an initial period where only wealthy investors invest, to a phase with hobbyists who have to wait a few years to see growth. Then comes the first bull run, after which the general public hears about it. Then everyone jumps in, and the initial wealthy investors sell their share, triggering a first moment of panic. After a short but sharp drop, new (late) investors enter, a brief upward climb ensues, and then a crash. A few years of wandering through the desert follows, after which everything starts anew.
Complacency
This is also true for Bitcoin. The 2022 low (reached after the FTX bankruptcy) was followed by a desert period that lasted about nine months. In the summer of 2023, it became clear that BlackRock wanted to apply for a Bitcoin ETF, and there were the first signs of life. In January 2024, the ETF was approved, and we climbed steadily higher. The election of Donald Trump as US president in November 2024 brought us to $100,000 for the first time. After a year of muddling on, we likely saw the (temporary) peak last month at $126,000. This current fall is therefore the moment of “complacency,” if the cheat sheet is correct then we’re waiting for some new buyers.
This should be followed by a further decline, which, according to technical analysts, will end in the spring of next year with a price around $58,000.
If it is correct, of course. In any case, it will be very interesting to see whether we can predict it again this time thanks to the historical data.
