Bitcoin prediction for Q2: war, inflation, Fed and crypto winter

How will Bitcoin fare in the second quarter of 2026? Is this a buying opportunity and can we officially announce the end of the crypto winter, or is it better to stay on the sidelines for a little longer? Our analysis below.

Iran

The conflict between the US and Iran, which has now lasted five weeks, remains the main macroeconomic driver for both global equities and crypto. The military escalation is causing capital to flow en masse to traditional safe havens.

If the situation continues and expands, a further decline in Bitcoin can be expected.

Federal Reserve and inflation

Secondly, we must take into account the Federal Reserve and whether they will keep interest rates high in the United States (which they planned to lower before Trump attacked Iran). If interest rates in the United States rise, you can also count on a further decline in Bitcoin.

European inflation has already shot up due to the war and will rise further in the coming months. This, too, will put a brake on stocks and crypto.

Support

Finally, we must also mention a bright spot. Bitcoin found support around the $60,000 price level in February of this year and has not fallen below it since. March finished on a positive note for Bitcoin, with a small plus after five months of declines. Fingers crossed that ‘crypto winter’ is over.