Bitcoin panic spreads, here’s what happened the last 3 times
Last Updated on 15 February 2026 by CryptoTips.eu
Earlier this week, the Fear & Greed index, also known as the cryptocurrency panic gauge, reached a level of 5 (for stock markets, the VIX is the measure one usually checks). The last three times this happened, it marked the end of the crash and the (sometimes very slow) start of a recovery for Bitcoin. Will it be the same this time, or are we heading even lower?
The Fear & Greed Index measures the emotions of crypto investors using data (such as social media mentions, actual cryptocurrency prices versus historical prices, market comments, etc.) on a scale of 0 to 100. A value of 5, which was shown earlier this week, indicates that almost everyone is panicking.
Historically, however, this doesn’t mean a bottom has been reached. The index indicates when fear is extreme but doesn’t necessarily indicate the start of a new bull run. However, the past three times the index dropped to a level of 5 (or around 5), we did see a major rally, although in some cases, it didn’t begin until weeks later.
December 2018
After Bitcoin broke through the then-magical $20,000 per coin for the first time in late 2017, the cryptocurrency dropped back down to $3,200 by December 2018. The Fear & Greed Index hovered around 5 for weeks. The journey through the desert lasted throughout 2019, after which we began to rise again in 2020.
March 2020
The March 2020 Covid crash, also known as Black Thursday in the crypto world, saw Bitcoin’s price plummet to $3,800 in a single day. The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 8. The bottom was reached very quickly, and the recovery became V-shaped. By April 2021, Bitcoin had already surpassed $60,000—a gain of 1,400% since its low.
November 2022
When FTX collapsed, the Bitcoin price fell to around $15,500 and the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 12. The recovery was very slow and Bitcoin moved sideways for months before rising back to $40,000 in late 2023, a gain of 150% from the low.
