2025: A Bitcoin transition year

Every Bitcoin bull run has in the past decade happened in the following manner: two years of strong growth, one transition year, and one year of decline. For Bitcoin, 2025 was a year with a new all-time high and a lower close hence a transition year (after two years of growth in 2023 and 2024). Due to the influx of institutional money, it’s unclear whether this also means a decline in 2026. Before we look to the future, let’s first look back at 2025.

Flashcrash

The year started quite badly, with a price drop of more than 30% between January and April. Trump’s many crypto promises didn’t happen in the first half of the year, and Bitcoin reacted very negatively to the announcements about import tariffs in early April. Economists feared a wave of inflation and investors decided to reduce and diversify their risks in financial markets, leading to a lower Bitcoin price.

Things improved again in May, and Bitcoin entered a new upward trend, resulting in several new record highs. The price first surpassed $110,000 and then rose to $120,000, but sellers defended the $130,000 level. In early October, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of around $126,000.

On October 10, President Trump threatened a new trade war against China, triggering a flash crash. The drop that occurred that day (around 15%) led to the largest sell-off in crypto history. This was followed by the US shutdown in October and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stating in November that further rate cuts were not guaranteed. All these events sent the price of Bitcoin plummeting to $80,000.

By now, we’re trading at around $87,000.